SETI -Do We Need A Gates, Zuckerberg, Musk or Bigelow: The Future of UFO/Private SETI

This is the result of some thinking today.   Comments are always welcome.

Arecibo Message explained: How researchers sent the first interstellar radio message

Chelsea Ritschel  The Independent

November 16 2018 marks 44 years since researchers sent humankind’s first interstellar radio message – an achievement Google is celebrating with aGoogle Doodle.

The Arecibo Message, sent from the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico in 1974, is a three-minute message of exactly 1,679 binary digits – which, if arranged in a specific way, can explain basic information about humanity and earth to extraterrestrial beings.

Scientists sent the message via frequency modulated radio waves to a cluster of stars 25,000 light years away to demonstrate the power of the Arecibo radio telescope, which was the largest and most powerful in the world at the time.

“It was a strictly symbolic event, to show that we could do it,” Cornell University professor of astronomy Donald Campbell recalled of the momentous event.

The event moved some present to tears as researchers contemplated their own existence and knowledge of planets and solar systems.

The hope is that, in many thousands of years, it may reach another living being.

The actual message was devised by a team of researchers from Cornell University led by astronomer and astrophysicist Dr Frank Drake.

When received, the message could be arranged in a grid 73 rows by 23 columns to form a pictograph that represents facts about mathematics, human DNA, planet earth, and humans.

From top down, the seven-part message can show the numbers one to 10, atomic numbers of elements including hydrogen and oxygen, the formulas for the sugars and bases in the nucleotides of DNA, a graphic of the DNA double helix structure, a figure of a human and the population of earth at the time, a graph of the solar system, and a graph of the telescope.

Since the Arecibo message was sent, the message has travelled just 259 trillion miles – a fraction of its journey to its intended destination, which will take roughly 25,000 years to complete.​

   That is 25,000 years for the message to reach its destination. And if –if- it reaches an intelligent life form and it is decided to respond, which seems very unlikely that it will see the point, there is the 25,000 year wait for the reply. Now, personally, I think sending a message to show off is pointless.  I certainly do not care when it gets to its final destination.  I won’t be alive and I think it is fair to say that no one alive today will be!

   Will Earth still be here in 50,000 years?  Will Humanity still be here? Those are the two minor questions because the main one is will any civilization exist in the area the signal is heading?  It was sent using the blind-fold and dart method: imagine having on dart and you have to score a bulls-eye, however, it is also decided that you have to wear a blindfold…and turn your back to the board.  If you hit a bulls-eye it will be a miracle.  If the Arecibo signal actually gets received by an advanced civilisation it would be akin to that miraculous darts bulls-eye.

Arecibo Observatory, Puert Rico photo ©JidoBG creative commons license

  

Rather like the Voyagers (1 and 2) their journeys.

 Voyager 1 was launched on Monday, 5^th September, 1977.  As I write this it is 41 years, 2 months, 13 days, 25 minutes and 48 seconds into its travels.  It is now (at the time of writing –November 18^th 2018) 144,70293392 AU (Astronomical Units) or 13,450, 974,240 miles from the Earth in what scientists call “interstellar space”. In 40,000 years it will encounter the AC+79 3888 star system which lies 17.6 light years from Earth.

   Voyager 2 was launched on Saturday, 20^th August, 1977 and is is the “Heliosheath” some 11, 117, 165, 732 miles or 119, 59629202 AU from Earth. It is heading toward the star Sirius and even travelling at 40,000 miles per hour it will not reach there for 296,000 years.

   Those are the time scales and destinations for the Voyagers -if they are not destroyed in some collision.  Planetary information from both was fantastic so why not just set them to randomly float around the solar system.  I know there are a lot of problems because of age and so on but surely someone must have thought it better to keep roaming our system than become a piece of space litter?

   Pioneer 10 visited Saturn in 1976, Uranus in 1979 and on the 13^th June, 1983 passed Neptune and became the first human-made object to leave the proximity of the Solar System.  Its speed means that the final journey will take more time than the faster (in relative terms) Voyagers.  Pioneer 10 is heading in “the general direction” of the star Aldebaran in the Taurus Constellation and if it gets there it will have taken 2 million years.  Pioneer 11, according to a statement on 22^nd January, 2016: “should pass close to the nearest star in the Constellation Aquila in about 4 million years”.

   NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory has an interesting “Nasa’s Eyes” web page where you can track the Voyagers’ progress.

   I really do not care that in 40,000 years, 296, 000 or 2 or 4 million years an alien space ship might find one of our probes.  Nor do I care that some alien astronomer might detect one of these probes. To them it may well send a cheery message of “there was intelligent life” out in space but according to most of those involved in the projects Humanity will have died out by then.

   Again, I personally do not think any really advanced alien civilisation would be using radio signals or sending out probes to say “Hello. We’re dead now –sorry you missed us!”

   The Andromeda Galaxy alone has an estimated (current figure 2018) 1 trillion stars. The European Space Agency’s (ESA) Gaia space craft is 3D scanning space and has made some excellent discoveries and has helped to create a 3D map of 1.7 billion stars in the Milky Way.  According to an item on Space.Com by Elizabeth Howell (29^th March, 2018),: “the estimate of the total stars in our galaxy at 100 billion”.

   Here is a little fact: as of the 1^st November, 2018, there have been 3,874 confirmed planets in 2,892 systems, with 638 systems having more than one planet. If you want more information on how these are detected and distances from Earth then there is a very good Wikipedia entry –just search online for “Exoplanets”.

   We should all know about the “Goldilocks Zone” - it refers to the habitable zone around a star where the temperature is just right - not too hot and not too cold - for liquid water to exist on a planet –as with the Earth.  Here, then, is another little fact for you: in November of 2013, astronomers reported, based on Kepler space mission data, that there could be as many as 40 billion Earth-sized planets orbiting in the habitable zones of Sun-like stars and red dwarfs in the Milky Way, 11 billion of which may be orbiting Sun-like stars.

©Jonahl613   Histogram Chart of Discovered Exoplanets as of 26^th November2017

   Remember that we only just recently discovered “Ghost Galaxies” and that there are suns that travel between galaxies –when it comes to knowing about our solar system and the universe around us our knowledge is quite low but we are learning more.

   We should really be considering sending any radio signals and messages shorter distances -and when objects the size of Oumuamua are only discovered by chance- we need to make sure any signals are broadcast throughout our solar system. Let us assume that there is some form of extra-terrestrial space-travelling civilisation out there and that it passes near, around or through our Solar System.  It is generally assumed –again- that these travellers will immediately know that we, Humanity, are here. Assumption is the father of all screw-ups.

   Mercury is approximately 36 million miles from the Sun while Venus is 67.2 million miles and our planet is 93 million miles from the Sun.Unless a very large space craft comes close to Earth and is detected –probably accidentally by one of the Near Earth Objects surveys as Oumuamua was- then that is a vast area of space. Mars is 141.6 million miles out from the Sun and Jupiter 483.6 million miles; Saturn 886.7 million miles while Uranus and Neptune are, respectively, 1,784 million and 2,794.4 million miles from the Sun. The dwarf planet Pluto is 3,674.5 million miles out and the suspected “Planet 9” (or “Planet 10” if you still object to Pluto having been downgraded) even further.

   One thing I always find interesting is that people tend to refer to the Solar System as though it were all on some flat plane.  It is not.  I think many have seen the diagrams showing comparative planetary sizes and positions in order of distance and actually think this is reality; like the images of Oumuamua these are all artistic visualisations. Then you also have to remember that, according to 2017 NASA figures, the majority of known asteroids orbit within the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, generally with not very elongated orbits.

   The Asteroid Belt is estimated to contain between 1.1 and 1.9 million asteroids larger than 1 kilometre (0.6 mile) in diameter, and millions of smaller ones.  So far astronomers have only plotted the orbits of a relative few asteroids and the Centre for Near Earth Object Studies CNEOS) at NASA’s JPL has an interesting web page with regular updates on NEO Earth Close Approaches but as it points out not all are detected before close approach. The most recently detected (November 2018) objects vary in diameter from 12 metres to 80 metres. 

   Which means that any supposed craft would need to come in fairly close to be detected and recognised.

   The argument then is “Well, they will hear our signals –Earth is a very noisy planet!”  Firstly: space is a very noisy place so that is not a really good argument if, secondly, “they” are neither looking nor listening.  It is looking at the situation via Human eyes; we have no idea what system of communications they use or whether they could relate to Human activity as anything but more space noise.  Earth is also quite small.

   Look at this image: on the 25^th September, 2018, a camera aboard NASA's Parker Solar Probe captured this photograph looking back to Earth — the bright object in the right hand (enlarged) image.  Would any alien craft passing by, say, Pluto at 3,674.5 million miles even know we are here?

   Credit: NASA/Naval Research Laboratory/Parker Solar Probe

   It could be that alien physiology is so different that their equipment would be of a type that would not pick up or even recognise Earth noise. There is nothing special about Earth if you consider that any aliens had spotted Humanity and taken a cursory glance –especially if they were already in contact with far superior civilisations to our own.  This basic ignorance –to be honest when it comes to vast distances it is all mind-numbing- of space is also shown amongst ufologists and so called “experiencers” (alien abductees). 

   Natalie’s experiences are with entities from the Pleiades. Of course, Monica has been involved in contact with a race from Andromeda while John has been involved with beings from Orion. These experiencers seem to think that these are simply solar systems -these names given without question.

   The Orion Nebula is 1,344 light years away while the Pleiades are 444.2 light years off. Andromeda is 2.537 million light years away.  It might have made some sense had the experiencers chosen a nearer galaxy such as the Sagittarius Dwarf Elliptical Galaxy which is ‘only’ 70,000 light years from our Sun.  In 2003 the Canis Major Dwarf Galaxy was discovered and is now our nearest neighbour at 25,000 light years or some 42,000 light years from our Galactic centre. In kilometres that is some 236,000,000,000,000,000.  If you want the kilometres to the SagDEG, give or take a kilometre it is 662,000,000,000,000,000.

   That any alien civilisation based on planets in such far flung galaxies are concerned about our tiny speck of dust is absolutely ridiculous especially when you again consider that there could be as many as 40 billion Earth-sized planets orbiting in the habitable zones of Sun-like stars and red dwarfs in the Milky Way and that 11 billion of which may be orbiting Sun-like stars.  Should we not be hearing more about entities from our nearer neighbours –Alpha Centauri, Barnard’s Star, Wolf 359, Lalande 21185 and so on and how concerned they are about how we treat our planet?

   It is far likelier that the “experiencer” has either heard the galactic name, read or come across it some other way and thinks Andromeda et al are simply solar systems –time and again I have actually come across this: including amongst some ufologists.

   Science also needs to get involved in the subject of UFOs if only in the sense of looking at the data and assessing reports –“unexplained” does not mean “alien” but it would offer us a basic data base to build on and study.  The unwillingness to do this is unscientific and, I believe, cowardly. Hopefully, it is just through closed minds rather than fear that their highly paid jobs might be at stake.

   That those involved with SETI will not become involved is, to a degree, and we have to be honest, understandable. Budd Hopkins, David Jacobs et al have made it so that the subject has become farcical: that there are “millions” of people abducted year-in and year- out to create a race of (based on Jacobs’ own work) alien half-wits.

   But we need to concentrate on those reports both old and new that have largely been left untainted and there are many. 

*We are not talking about hundreds of flying saucer crashes and many hundreds of dead aliens

*We are not even looking at extra terrestrials visiting Earth over the centuries as there is no evidence of this except that presented by the bunko crew. 

*We are certainly not talking about “many millions” of alien abductees. 

*We are not talking hundreds or thousands of extra terrestrial space craft being sighted each year.

   What we are talking about is far less, rarer activity and, being honest again, re-assessing all of the old reports has left me realising that there is evidence there –even if only anecdotal. 100% evidence is not possible since if landing traces, radiation and other physical evidence is ignored by sceptical ufologists and debunkers (the same thing) or simply waved off as being unexplainable and therefore “not evidence” I doubt that anything would convinced a closed and frightened mind.

   By definition, and I find this almost laughable, doing the work I am it is safe to say I am far more involved in SETI than most of those working within SETI itself.  And I ought not to exclude attempts by others over the years that have created arrays of million candle power lights to beam signals at “UFOs” (which might work if you are not simply aiming your light array at a natural light phenomenon). Others over the years have tried using amateur radio in an attempt to contact flying saucer occupants and this has, it seems failed because hoaxers easily get involved.

Above –the St. Paul UFO Landing Pad.

   Over the decades, usually following a “UFO” landing or similar incident, people have created UFO landing pads of various types. The St. Paul UFO Landing Pad in Alberta, Canada, is hailed as “The World’s First UFO Landing Pad” and was built in 1967 as a Canadian Centennial Project. Lack of use meant that by the 1990’s it had fallen into disrepair but it was then restored and a UFO museum added. A UFO conference was held there a few times. It is a big visitor attraction now –sadly, no alien visitors yet.

   Swiss man named Werner Jaisli travelled to the small town of Cachi in the province of Salta, Argentina and put a collection of white and brown rocks together in the shape of a star between 2008 and 2012 and is known as an 'ovniport'.  Oddly, Jaisli later disappeared –some saying he went to Bolivia or back to Switzerland. There is the other theory that Jaisli and his ovniport were successful and he is currently whizzing around space in a spaceship.

   France, the United States and even a small effort by some in the UK have all been tried but these have all been small scale attempts and without any financial backing these projects do not last long –the St. Paul attempt only survives because it was restored and designed as a tourist attraction.

  

Above: Jaisli’s Argentinean “ovniport”

    We have to ask ourselves whether the current attempts at SETI are serious. Should we really be spending multi-millions of dollars on sending signals out that are probably not going to reach any alien civilisation or that will take centuries to arrive where ever they are aimed at?  SETI, of course, is not as simple as sending a signal out into space as that would come under Communications with Extra Terrestrial Intelligence (CETI) while SETI is the Search for Extra Terrestrial Intelligence SETI needs to find signs of alien civilisation before CETI can get to work.

   The International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) has a long-standing SETI Permanent Study Group  -the SPSG, formerly called the IAA SETI Committee- which addresses matters concerning SETI science, technology, and international policy. The SPSG meets in conjunction with the International Astronautical Congress (IAC) held annually at different locations around the world, and sponsors two SETI Symposia at each IAC. It was in 2005 that the IAA established the SETI: Post-Detection Science and Technology Taskgroup (Chairman, Professor Paul Davies) "to act as a Standing Committee to be available to be called on at any time to advise and consult on questions stemming from the discovery of a putative signal of extraterrestrial intelligent (ETI) origin."

   It should be pointed out that the protocols mentioned only apply to radio SETI rather than for METI (Active SETI). The intention for METI is covered under the SETI charter "Declaration of Principles Concerning Sending Communications with Extraterrestrial Intelligence".

   The “Wow!” signal is not accepted as evidence since it was heard only the once. However, were signals received that would come under the auspices of METI –Messaging Extra Terrestrial Intelligence.  They have a web site and you can find out about their work. There is also an outline of METI’s mission.

The Primary Objectives And Purposes Of METI International Are To:

1.  Conduct scientific research and educational programs in Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence (METI) and the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI).

2.  Promote international cooperation and collaboration in METI, SETI, and astrobiology.

3.  Understand and communicate the societal implications and relevance of searching for life beyond Earth, even before detection of extraterrestrial life.

4.  Foster multidisciplinary research on the design and transmission of interstellar messages, building a global community of scholars from the natural sciences, social sciences, humanities, and arts.

5.  Research and communicate to the public the many factors that influence the origins, evolution, distribution, and future of life in the universe, with a special emphasis on the last three terms of the Drake Equation: (1) the fraction of life-bearing worlds on which intelligence evolves, (2) the fraction of intelligence-bearing worlds with civilizations having the capacity and motivation for interstellar communication, and (3) the longevity of such civilizations.

6.  Offer programs to the public and to the scholarly community that foster increased awareness of the challenges facing our civilization’s longevity, while encouraging individual and community activities that support the sustainability of human culture on multigenerational timescales, which is essential for long-term METI and SETI research.

   You might think that this would mean that there ought to be cooperation between the METI/SETI and credible Ufologists.  After all, since 1947 -71 years- Ufologists have been talking to the general public about the possibility of UFOs being extra terrestrial and that is a lot of groundwork to cash in on. Sadly, it does not work that way. There are astronomers who are interested in the UFO subject, either openly or privately.  There are members of other Scientific disciplines who are interested. Really, the Ufologists and scientific community should be working together

   As I have already noted, Ufology does not have a good reputation. I really do not need to go into why it has that reputation any further. With most Ufologists it is a case of Science having to accept “many thousands of UFO sightings and alien contacts” and then there are the factions within Ufology and the obvious demands that will be made –dig out the preserved alien bodies and crashed flying saucers from Roswell and many, many other sites since 1947.  Denying these exists would be tantamount, as far as Ufologists are concerned, to admitting that the cooperation being offered was a sham. A cover-up designed to keep the “truth-seekers” quiet.

   The fact that scientists involved would no doubt say “You Ufologists have to be reasonable and understand that there is no evidence of UFO landings or contact cases and that Roswell never had a flying saucer crash”.  There are data bases of trace evidence as well as data on vehicle interference reports and so on. The fact that the people behind this work are not members of an accredited university means a lot of scientists will not accept it –yet it is there for them to review. It should be pointed out that NASA does not cover up evidence of extra terrestrial life; if it discovered such then it would guarantee it a massive boost in financial backing.  A great many Ufologists will not accept that NASA does not cover up evidence of ETs.

   What we need to do is go about this in a more organised manner and if we cannot all cooperate then the work needs to be carried out privately.

   Firstly, we need a team of experienced investigators who can look into UFO reports and claimed Close Encounters of the Third Kind. These could be ex-police officers or ex-military police; people who have a good instinct as to whether a witnesses is lying or not and who know how to gather evidence correctly.

   A team could also consist of astronomers or be able to consult astronomers. When it came to a CE3K then from the outset the team should consist of a psychologist so that at the very outset a percipient can be clearly assessed. It is also important that in such cases where a percipient appears to be physiologically affected in some way, that medical assistance can be given and tests run.  There is a long list of cases where percipients were noted as suffering from various physical symptoms and very few involved any medical tests or examinations but Ufologists later guessing at what might have happened to the person in question –often badly misquoting medical sources.  Tests as soon as possible could probably yield a great deal of information.

   Secondly, we need to set up small areas from which radio and other types of signals could be sent: a Field Base.  The idea of a circular array of powerful lights is still a good one since, if an object was a non terrestrial visitor rather than a natural light phenomenon, if it returned a repeated light signal that would indicate a great deal.  A natural light phenomenon would not have the intelligence needed to copy and repeat a light signal back.

   Thirdly, if the area above could be funded then it could also include a “landing pad”.  This does not mean some kind of constructed area. If your Field Base is set in a large field or next to a large field then that would be the potential landing area; UFOs have landed in swampy terrain, desert, hillsides and fields and woods without the need for a constructed landing pad. A Field Base should be set up in the United States, UK and in Europe.

   Fourth; you would really require a team that can cover the United States, Canada as well as the UK and Europe.  The speed that a team can get to an active area or to a witness the better so the idea of a major report from the UK needing a team from the United States to fly out would increase costs and time wasted.

   None of this replaces SETI of course. The question is, however, would SETI as a body accept the data gathered through the above manner?  It should if carried out scientifically or the alternative would be to find members of the United Nations who would receive the information and who could act or lend some weight to the work.

   The biggest effort would require independent financing.  A red speedster can be sent up into space as a publicity stunt but what about a series of small satellites sent into space to broadcast contact messages or signals –these would be far more likely to attract attention, especially if some form of light display signal could be incorporated into them.

   We are in the 21^st century and yet our attempts to get to the bottom of UFO incidents still appears to be unscientific at best and at worst diving into a chasm of fantasy speculation and claims. Established scientific bodies –France being the exception with its space agency- appear to be disinterested and yet they should be interested.

   It seems that any such project would need to be funded privately but there are few out there with the financial clout.  We need a Robert Bigelow, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg or Bill Gates. The chances of such a backer(s) coming forward are remote in the extreme. 

   So we plod on.